November 8-9, 2016 will likely be one of this generation’s Kennedy moments. Everyone will remember where they were and what they were doing when they got the news of Donald Trump clinching the electoral vote, and how it registered that his ascendancy to president was a done deal.
Regardless of whether one approved of it personally, the outcome shocked us all collectively. We toddled around for a few days, working out what it meant and how it happened. Eventually we got back to work or the job search. And in the silence of our minds, many of us asked, “What does President Trump mean for me and my job?”
This is not a political column or a policy analysis piece, so I am not even going to try to debate the merits of trade deal renegotiation, immigration policy changes, tariffs, or corporate taxation. Doubtless any of these could shake up the job market if implemented in the ways Trump sketched out during his campaign. But we have endured enough bluster on these topics for at least another four years, and can hand it all back to those who make a living churning them. It’s time for us to sit down at Thanksgiving with our families and friends, and talk about our lives and the things that hold us together year after year.
We can certainly all agree that at the core of Trump’s victory was a vivid, compelling, and plainspoken message about putting people to work in good-paying jobs. Unfortunately, his campaign offered little detail regarding the overall strategy, implementation plans, timelines, or priorities. But it need not give us indigestion over our Thanksgiving dinner, or prompt any dustups after dessert. In the spirit of taking Trump seriously but not literally, there are some leftovers that provide ample calm and nourishing reflection.
The economy is a big deal, actually lots of big deals
Trump’s acceptance speech promise of massive infrastructure investment could create jobs in the short term, or be rolled up into long-term works projects. In either case, the appropriations process will likely be lengthy, further complicated by a Congress whose support of President Trump may be reluctant at first, and earned only after Trump shows them and their districts the money.
Investment is also likely to be prioritized for higher growth regions, which would favor workers already near tech centers and in southerly states, while missing many of the manufacturing and agricultural regions where voters tipped the scales for Trump. The energy sector might be one exception, but it also contains a unique set of risks, complexities, and agendas. So expect a lot of debate before any deals get signed and hiring office portables start rolling into town.
His proposed changes in corporate tax laws could free up more of a company’s resources to invest in growth. Rather than having to go to capital markets and get beholden to restrictive terms, companies may keep more of their own money to do with as they please. Bank deregulation could ease some restrictions or provide an additional or cheaper source of capital.
The big question though is whether companies will invest those funds in more jobs or increased capital growth in order to maximize overall returns. In the last few decades, businesses have heavily favored the latter, but that may be changing. Look closely at whether any changes to corporate taxation or bank lending also include incentives that favor creating more jobs. Again, if and when this happens, it will only be after a lot of horse-trading.
OK, so what about me and my job?
As the new administration settles in during the coming months, it will almost certainly try for some quick wins, which probably do not include any shocks to the job market. That’s a good thing. Jobseekers should expect the economy to continue to grow at a modest rate, with wage and jobs growth following accordingly.
Now is a good time to test the market if you already have a job, act on good leads if you are searching for one, and plan your next move regardless of your employment situation.
What jobseekers should look out for in the short term is how companies respond to legislation that could affect the actual hiring process. HR departments may in short order find themselves significantly burdened, either preparing for or reacting to potential changes in employment verification, the Affordable Care Act, employment-based visas, and payroll taxation. Such additional work will reallocate resources away from recruiting, hiring, and onboarding, and transfer them to the HR bureaucracy.
The most likely results include increased hiring costs, longer time to hire, and decreases in accessible applicant pools.
Jobseekers should be prepared for longer, more complicated, and potentially more intrusive hiring experiences.
However, pre-qualified or low-risk/low-cost hires may be more aggressively recruited and retained, as companies attempt to differentiate their employer brand or reduce retention risk.
Prepare so as to be unsurprised
Thanksgiving is an occasion for renewing good traditions, whereas the holidays that follow are more about receiving surprises. In that spirit, perhaps the best piece of wisdom this season comes in simply being reminded that Trump surprised us all, and most of the polls and data jockeys didn’t pick up the tells. He is no less likely to follow suit in the first year of his presidency, surprising the job market and American workers, and channeling forces that are both powerful but under the radar.
The stock market may jump around, but the underlying fundamentals are largely solid. Nevertheless, be alert, especially for more changes to the rules of the game. Don’t take anything as necessarily given. Have your job search game plan well in place, and be ready to act quickly when you catch a break.